The declaration of President Barak Husain Obama’s Af-Pak policy and the successful conclusion of the London conference on Afghanistan are a welcome development. They are correct steps in the right direction. However, the current situation in Afghanistan has thrown up several new challenges. It is nearly impossible to wind up the war and stabilize Afghanistan without analyzing these challenges and finding their appropriate answers.
Psychological high ground
First of all, the proposed withdrawal of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) from Afghanistan by July 2011 has provided a sharp focus to the war on terror going on listlessly for the last eight years. Mr. George Bush, like the well known character of the Mahabharat War, Abhimanyu, did enter the strategic trap (Chakravyuh) of Afghanistan but did not know how to wriggle out of it. He and some of his officials had reconciled to the possibility of staying in Afghanistan for at least a decade or so. Obama’s bold decision and the firm declaration of the beginning of the withdrawal of the Western forces by July 2011 had a dramatic political impact on the people of Afghanistan. It has hit the very foundation of the resurgence of the Taliban.
Taliban propaganda
The Taliban acquired ascendancy in the recent past mostly because they were able to convince the Afghan people at large that they are not only fighting for Islam but also for securing the freedom of Afghanistan. The ordinary people do know that their Islam is not much threatened by the presence of foreign forces but they do feel that their national honor and freedom has become a pawn in the hands of the Americans. The age-old Afghan psychological complex against the foreigners (Firangee) has been played up quite successfully by the Taliban, especially among the tribal people. The legitimacy of democratically elected government of Hamid Karzai is consistently questioned by them and they do not hesitate to call him the American Babrak Karmal (the Prime Minister, who invited Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in December 1979).
They have spread the word in the entire country that the Americans would never leave because it won’t take more than a few hours for Karzai government to sink once the foreign forces left. Now Obama’s declaration has punctured this basic myth spread by the Taliban.
Western morale up
The second fallout of Obama’s declaration is the upsurge in the morale of the western armies. They have entered into the mentality of ‘do or die.’ They know that they have to leave within next 18 months. If they don’t fight earnestly, they will have to leave in disgrace. This will be a severe blow to the western prestige. Their claims to being a great power will not only be under a shadow, the jehadi terrorists will threaten them in many other parts of the world.
The fighting spirit of the alliance troops has received a new lease of life. An Army which lost the largest number of soldiers last year has bounced back under the leadership of a new General. The alliance operations have achieved notable and dramatic successes recently in the Helmand region. The critics of Obama have been proved wrong.
Numbers matter
However, it is impossible to believe that 1,40,000 soldiers of the western alliance are enough to eliminate the Taliban and bring about an era of peace and stability in Afghanistan. If almost 1,00,000 western soldiers were unable to make any difference in Afghanistan, how will a few thousand more be able to bring about the sea change in the anarchic Afghanistan. The western soldiers are not accustomed to fight one on one as they have to in Afghanistan. They are more dependent on advanced weaponry. They are not well-versed in the topography of the land nor do they understand the local languages. The ordinary people are afraid of supporting them openly. They lack proper intelligence to carry out swift operations and they hardly have proper coordination with the local Afghan army.
Quantum leap needed
The increase of 30,000 troops is welcome but it is too little and too late. Afghanistan needs an army of at least 5,00,000 soldiers today. The Western powers should have sent at least 2,00,000 fighters and should have raised an army of 3,00,000 Afghans within the next one year to be increased to 5,00,000 to replenish the space vacated by the Western soldiers after 18 months.
Why does Afghanistan need such a large army? Please think of those tranquil days of Zahir Shah 37 years ago when no such thing like the Taliban or Mujahideen existed. Zahir Shah had an army consisting of almost 2,00,000 troops plus conscription. Every Afghan young man had to undergo army training. The population of Afghanistan has just doubled during the last three-and-half-decades and the country is passing through a constant civil war. Most of the Afghan households have their own weaponry and it needs a slightest provocation to turn them into the Taliban or their supporter.
The American doctrine of counter insurgency stipulates a ratio of 20 to 25 soldiers for every 1000 inhabitants, which means that for the population of 29 million you need almost 7,00,000 soldiers to tackle the jehadis. The total number of the Afghan soldiers in the army and the police as well as the foreign forces is nearly half of the above.
Afro-Asia troops cheaper
One does appreciate the constraints under which the Western forces are deployed in Afghanistan. The Dutch Government fell on this issue recently. Several other countries, including Canada, are keen to recall their soldiers. In such a situation several Asian and African countries could be approached to send their soldiers. The cost of maintaining an Afghan soldier compared to an alliance soldier is less by 70 to 80 times. The Asian and African soldiers would have definitely cost much less than the Western soldiers. The London Conference did talk about training an Afghan National Army of 3,00,000 soldiers but if it is not done in a year or so the date of withdrawal may turn out to be a mere fantasy.
Deprive Taliban recruits
If you are determined to raise an army of half a million soldiers in Afghanistan, you would be striking at the source of the Taliban recruitment. The unemployed youth to be lured to fight for the Taliban will be simply not available. You will be killing two birds with one stone. You will also be hitting at the source of opium smuggling, arms running and mafia organizations. With an army of half-a-million Afghan soldiers you can provide protection to almost every village and tribe of Afghanistan. The ordinary people will feel safe in cooperating with the army and provide intelligence against the Taliban.
Once the Government is able to set up an effective mechanism in every district the Taliban attacks will dwindle automatically and they will be willing to negotiate with the Government in Kabul. It is futile to negotiate without strength. The London Conference has sanctioned 500 million dollars to help Taliban to come to negotiation table. This move should not be debunked offhand. Perhaps more money would be needed to attract the unemployed and misguided youth. There is no use rejecting the effort at bringing the Taliban elements to the main stream. Such an effort is called by some governments as total surrender to the terrorists. This is the result of extreme simplification of a complex problem. Those who reject the dialogue with the Taliban, hardly delved into the circumstances due to which young people are forced to join the terrorists. The motivating factor always is not Islam but the tribal loyalties, excesses of the foreign armies, lure of money and weapons and an age-old tradition of expelling the foreign occupier.
Pakistani game plan
Added to all these motives, is the provocation unleashed by the Pakistan establishment. Pakistan has relentlessly worked for setting up a fifth province for itself carved out from the territories of Afghanistan. Taking advantage of the long drawn turmoil it has put out a new military doctrine of seeking a strategic depth for itself in Afghanistan. It says that it needs this depth against the possible military push by India. It is leaving no stone unturned to realize this Mughal dream. It works both ways. It cuts both India and Afghanistan. Pakistan trains, arms and organizes jehadis in the name of Islam. What is most surprising is the fact that it has no qualms in hoodwinking its generous patron, the USA. The American assistance is used to defeat the American purpose.
However since the advent of Obama, the scenario has changed a little bit. The American administration has for the first time introduced a caveat while offering 1.5 billion dollars aid every year. Pakistan has to prove that it has spent this money in fighting against the Al Qaeda. The American assistance has always been used, by and large, against India, whether it was meant to fight the Soviets or the Communists in Kabul.
It is high time that the Taliban are delinked from Pakistan and they are approached directly. The call for dialogue with them by the London Conference is not asking to concede any unreasonable demand of Taliban. In fact the 14th paragraph of the London declaration dealing with the negotiations does not even mention the Taliban by their name. It only calls for bringing those elements to mainstream who are ready to abjure violence and are willing to accept the democratic set up. Had India opposed this move, it would have not signed the London declaration. India is opposed to accommodating those Taliban who are out to impose their Islamic hegemony over Kabul, Islamabad and ultimately over New Delhi by force.
India, the victim
Their Islam has nothing to do with the Islam of Muhammad. It is the Islam of Osama Bin Laden and that of Mullah Omar. Their Islam’s worst victim is India. It did attack the US and some of the Western countries but the main brunt is borne by India. India has lost more than one hundred thousand lives during the last two decades and its Parliament, its most sacred temples, its best hotels, its railways and its aero planes have been targeted. India has to play a leading role in decimating this deeply entrenched structure of terror.
If the Western powers and the Afghan Government are planning to drive a wedge among the Taliban, India has to welcome this effort. In fact, India should initiate a dialogue with the so called Taliban on its own. Who are those Taliban? Though every Pathan is not a Talib but every Talib is a Pathan. Pathans have been friend of India for centuries. They came much closer to India after the creation of Pakistan. They looked upon India as their benefactor in the wake of Pakistani atrocities. Badshah Khan (another name for the charismatic giant Khan Abdul Gaffar Khan) and his kin were known as ardent friends of India. But during the last three decades a political distance has cropped up between the Pathans and India.
Win back the Pathans
The Pathans have a grievance that India had been supporting the Afghan-Northern Alliance, which consisted of mostly the non-Pashtun leaders of Afghanistan. These Pathans have been used against India in Kashmir and other places by Pakistan. It is necessary to win them back. Hamid Karzai, who is a Popalzai Pathan, is keen to speak to them. India should support him whole hog to serve its own long term interests. If India sulks back, it will be a looser in the aftermath of the American withdrawal. India cannot afford to ignore the Pathans, whether the Taliban win or lose after July 2011.
Even if the Taliban take over Kabul by violence or by democratic method at a later date, India should know that their repulsion for the Punjabis of Pakistan is more acute than for the Hindus of India. Their hatred against the Punjabi domination is proverbial. They will ultimately like to make up with India to size up Pakistan. That’s what they tried to do at the fag end of their rule in Kabul. The so called Taliban Ambassador met me in December 1999 thrice in New York at the UN to seek recognition and friendly relations with India. Do we know how our hijacked plane was released safely from Kandhar?
Once India tries to be close to the Pathans and starts negotiating with the so called Taliban, the Pakistan establishment will start trembling with anger. However, the diplomatic skills of India will be on test. India has to understand that it is the largest regional power of South Asia and it cannot command allegiance of its neighbors, especially Pakistan, if it does not accommodate their legitimate interests and aspirations. There could be no denial of the fact that as far as Afghanistan is concerned Pakistan will enjoy preponderance over India due not only to common borders but shared ethnicities, religion and strategic convergence. Pakistan should be assured by India that it has no interest in fuelling sub- nationalism in South Asia. It would not support an independent Pakhtunistan or Baluchistan. It is ready to work along with Pakistan to promote stability and democracy in Afghanistan. Let Pakistan take lead in the bilateral and local issues and India can look after the larger framework of regional cooperation and stability.
The Indian army is capable of taking responsibility for raising an Afghan National Army of half-a-million jawans at a very low cost. What India has been doing for years on a small scale can be enlarged into one of the most challenging military exercises. Needless to say what India can accomplish in Afghanistan no other country can. If the North Atlantic Treaty Organization coalition is ready to foot the bill, India can help them organize a peaceful exit on the appointed date.
India’s current constructive role in Afghanistan has earned it unusual plaudits. India has spent more than 1.5 billion dollars and sacrificed its diplomats, soldiers and workers in Afghanistan. India has for the first time liberated Afghanistan from the shackles of being a land-locked country. It has built the Jaranj–Dilaram road near the Iranian Border which provides Afghanistan with an alternatives route to Afghanistan to reach the world. Its age-old total dependency for transit on Pakistan is a matter of past. However, India’s role in Afghanistan appears to be extremely passive and subdued. It sounds like India playing a second fiddle to the US. India seems to lack its own strategy in Afghanistan. We have perhaps, paid no attention to the post US-exit scenario. Is it possible to continue to work in Afghanistan once the Western forces leave? Who will protect the Indian Embassy and the Indian workers? Apart from worrying about our own protection did we ever think about the state of Afghanistan in post-American phase? The Indian contribution running into one and half billion dollars may be wiped off along with the present set up. What are we doing to strengthen the present democratic regime?
Many American friends in Washington DC recently tried to probe with me the possibility of Indian take over after the ISAF forces leave. Yes, India has the military capability to do that but it would prove to be a dangerous trap for India. Afghanistan is far more complicated than Sri Lanka. Didn’t we learn our bitter lessons there? However, it does not mean that India can have no military role in Afghanistan. In fact, India can play the most crucial military role in Afghanistan during the next 18 months. The Indian army is capable of taking responsibility for raising an Afghan National Army of half-a-million jawans at a very low cost. What India has been doing for years at a small scale can be enlarged into one of the most challenging military exercises. Needless to say what India can accomplish in Afghanistan no other country can. If that NATO coalition is ready to foot the bill, India can help them organize a peaceful exit on the appointed date. However, the worst opposition to this plan will emanate from Pakistan. It is up to the US to persuade Pakistan to remain either neutral or join Indian efforts at raising the Afghan National Army. It should be made clear to all the parties that the Afghans have to fight for themselves. No foreign army can fight for them forever.
The convergence of the Indian and Pakistan interests in Afghanistan is the first condition to bring about a regional solution in Afghanistan. In fact, Pakistan has become, of late, a more serious victim of terrorism than India. Why can’t Pakistan and India form a joint front against terrorism and start operating from Afghanistan. The Pakistan leadership may be persuaded by the Americans to do the needful in this regard but the army and intelligence will not give in on this score. If the Americans fail in this mission, they will be paving the way for eventual take over first of Kabul, then Peshawar and ultimately of Islamabad by the Taliban.
India can cope up with this situation on its own but we should not be oblivious of the fact that India and Pakistan both are nuclear powers. If the US withdraws from Afghanistan without making a fool proof alternative arrangement it will be paving the way for a possible nuclear disaster. The London Conference did talk of regional cooperation as a major factor to resolve the Afghan conundrum but it hardly paid any attention to Indo-Pak detente.
Restore Afghan sovereignty
The London Conference did provide 500 million dollars for the dialogue with the dissidents but it has not spelt out a clear amount to salvage the sinking ship of reconstruction in Afghanistan. The amount spent on the reconstruction compared to the military operations is nothing but like a cumin seed in the mouth of a camel. Most of the foreign assistance has been funneled into Afghanistan through NGOS. President Hamid Karzai himself told me that his government hardly controls from 4 to 20 per cent of entire foreign assistance. The Provincial Reconstruction Teams are almost autonomous. This arrangement deals a blow to the prestige of the Central Government of Afghanistan and falls prey to local aggrandizements. Similarly the International Security Assistance Force operates on its own. The Afghan Defense Ministry has no control over them. The ordinary Afghans interpret these two phenomena as the evidence of lack of sovereignty in their government. It does provide grist to the propaganda mill of the Taliban.
They call Hamid Karzai Government as the puppet of the US. Unless the Central Government of Afghanistan is endowed with real powers on military operations and foreign assistance, the effective governance would remain a far cry. The Afghans don’t respect a ruler unless he is really powerful.
The power of Government in Kabul is also eroded because of the unrestricted production of opium and its smuggling Afghanistan is the largest producer of opium in the world. It produced nine thousand tones of opium last year. The money generated by opium is more than the total budget of the Government. The opium mafia has a capacity to run a parallel government in Afghanistan. The highest government officials and even the Western Commanders are said to be hand in glove in this trade. The Taliban, their supporters and thousands of opium farmers thrive on opium production and sale. They have an international network. There is no dearth of money to buy weapons and lure the unemployed youth for terrorism. The opium sustains the terrorism and the terrorism sustains the opium in Afghanistan.
The London Conference has taken an adequate note of this most dangerous phenomenon in Afghanistan. It has found that the opium farming is reduced by 22 percent this year and instead of only six districts 20 districts have been completely freed of opium production. Unless the Government of Afghanistan controls the cultivation and trade of opium on war footing, it is impossible to hit at the financial source of the Taliban.
Hamid Karzai is one of the kindest rulers of Afghanistan. He is extremely democratic in his approach to his friends and also to the enemies. He is not autocratic as far as dialing with other institutions in concerned but this leniency has taken a serious tool of the Afghan system. Corruption has become a national disease in Afghanistan. The ministers, army officials, bureaucrats and even the judges are found to be openly involved in corruption. The London conference has very wisely asked the government to keep the relatives of politicians away from lucrative government posts. This is not enough. It the Karzai Government wants to eliminate corruption, it has to administer exemplary punishments to the culprits. The proposed 12 thousand new entrants to beaurocracy should know in advance the fate of the corrupt officials. Karzai has to begin with the top. He should act against his own kin who have tainted his image. Even if they are not really guilty they should be removed from their posts to assuage the public opinion.
Aid Afghan reconstruction
The London Conference has promised to infuse the reconstruction work with adequate resources but it is very strange that it has declared the fund of 500 million dollars for negotiating with the dissidents but said nothing about the exact amount to be extended as foreign assistance. It could have declared amounts of say, 50 billion dollars in one go. It would have had a dramatic impact on the overall situation in Afghanistan. The alliance countries have spent several times more amount than this on their military operations. Their policy on foreign assistance needs a drastic review.
The alliance countries should ensure that a solid political structure is set up in Afghanistan before they leave it by July 2011. Does the world know that there are no regular political parties in Afghanistan? It is like a roof without pillars. There remains a constant stalemate between the President and the Parliament. The popularly elected President has no way to reach the people directly. There is no bridge between the government and the citizens except the inefficient and corrupt bureaucracy.
The recent reelection of President Hamid Karzai is a tribute to the Afghan democracy but has left a wide political cleavage amongst the politicians of Afghanistan. It is like a national divide. Despite Karzai’s best effort at bringing all kinds of elements to his cabinet the bitterness is persisting at the national level. It has also percolated to the district levels. A vigorous national reconciliation is the need of the hour. IF the Afghans don’s swim together during this difficult time, they will sink together as soon as the Western forces leave Afghanistan.
1 March 2010
Dr. Vaidik on Afghanistan
Dr. V.P. Vaidik is a renowned expert on Afghanistan. He is the only one among the top Indian experts on international affairs, who has studied at Kabul University, knows the languages of Afghanistan and has traveled extensively in that country. His Ph.D. thesis (JNU) : A Comparative Study of Afghanistan’s Relations with the USA and the USSR
has won international acclaim, though it was written in Hindi, which ignited uproarious debates in the Indian Parliament 40 years ago.
Dr. Vaidik has published three books and more than 100 articles and research papers on Afghanistan including a few in English, Russian and Persian. Dr. Vaidik is in touch with almost all the Presidents, Prime Ministers and major factional leaders of Afghanistan throughout these years of turmoil. The former king of Afghanistan, Zahir Shah & other
members of the royal family have been knowing Dr. Vaidik personally. Dr. Vaidik has traveled to Afghanistan times without number as the guest of the King & several other Presidents & Prime Ministers. He has been consulted by almost all the Indian Prime Ministers of India on Afghanistan.
Dr. Vaidik has been the Editor of the then largest circulated Hindi Daily, Navbharat Times and the premier Indian News Agency, PTI-Bhasha for a long time. He had been a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses.
Leave a Reply